Climate Forecasting Models for Precise Management Using Extreme Value Theory
نویسندگان
چکیده
The objective of this research was to develop a mathematical and statistical model for long-term prediction. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) applied analyze the appropriate distribution by using peak-over-threshold approach with Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) predict daily extreme precipitation temperatures in eight provinces located upper northeastern region Thailand. Generally, each province has only 1–2 meteorological stations, so spatial analysis cannot be performed comprehensively. Therefore, reanalysis data were obtained from NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. used at level 25 square kilometers, which comprises 71 grid points, whereas temperature 50 includes 19 points. According results, GPD goodness fit test Kolmogorov-Smirnov Statistics (KS Test) according estimation return annual periods 2 years, 5 10 100 indicating areas temperatures. results would useful supplementing decision-making planning cope risk as well effective resources prevention. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2023-09-07-014 Full Text: PDF
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Civil Engineering Journal
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['2676-6957', '2476-3055']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.28991/cej-2023-09-07-014